Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of October 31^st through November 4^th    

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of October 30^th through November 4^th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, October 30^th

• 10:45pm NZD Building Consents -17.1% versus last 16.6%. The NZD fell.

Monday, October 31^st

• 10:16am CHF Retail Sales -0.9% versus 2.3% expected. The CHF fell.
• 1:30pm CAD GDP 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The CAD fell.
• 10:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index 0.5% versus 0.9% expected. The NZD fell.

Tuesday, November 1^st

• 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.4 versus 51.9 expected.
• 4:30am AUD Cash Rate 4.50% versus 4.75% expected.
• 4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that, “The exchange rate has been very variable over the past few months, but on the whole has remained at historically high levels. Over the past year, the board has maintained a mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy, in view of its concerns about inflation.” The AUD fell.
• 8:00am GBP Nationwide HPI 0.4% versus 0.1% expected.
• 10:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 47.4 versus 50.0 expected.
• 10:30am GBP Preliminary GDP 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The GBP fell.
• 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.4 versus 52.3 expected. The USD rose.

Wednesday, November 2^nd

• 1:30am AUD Building Approvals -13.6% versus -4.5% expected. The AUD rose mildly.
• 10:30am GBP Construction PMI 53.9 versus 50.2 expected. The GBP was unchanged.
• 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 110K versus 103K expected.
• 5:30pm USD Federal Funds Rate Decision <0.25%, as expected.
• 5:30pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, “The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.”
• 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference noted that, “Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.” The USD mostly fell.
• 10:45pm NZD Employment Change 0.2% versus 0.6% expected.
• 10:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6% versus 6.4%, < good for NZD fell.

Thursday, November 3^rd

• 1:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The AUD rose.
• 10:30am GBP Services PMI 51.3 versus 51.9 expected. The GBP rose.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 397K versus 402K.
• 1:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.25% versus 1.50% expected.
• 2:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference noted that, “Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to reduce the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. While inflation has remained elevated and is likely to stay above 2% for some months to come, inflation rates are expected to decline further in the course of 2012 to below 2%. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be moderate.” The EUR rose.
• 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.9 versus 53.9 expected. The USD fell.

Friday, November 4^th

• 1:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “These fiscal issues, together with the ongoing consolidation of private-sector balance sheets following the financial crisis, mean that the outlook for growth in many advanced economies remains subdued.” The AUD fell.
• 12:00pm CAD Employment Change -54.0K versus 20.3K expected.
• 12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.3% versus 7.2% expected.
• 1:30pm CAD Building Permits -4.9% versus 2.7% expected.
• 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 80K versus 98K expected.
• 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 9.0% versus 9.1%. The USD rose.
• 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 54.4 versus 56.2 expected. The CAD fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.4134 open to a 1.3754 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 75.63 open to a 78.18 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.6120 open to a 1.6020 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.0699 open to a 1.0351 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.9915 open to a 1.0182 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.8196 open to a 0.7910 close.